Impact of FARC Peace Talks

FARC Peace Talks and Mining Implications

December 29, 2015

Alexa Bran – Primary Article Contributor and Analyst following Colombia

Cole Grossinger – Editor and Team Leader following Colombia

Keywords: peace talks, security, justice, ceasefire, mining, Colombia, risks

Peace talks between FARC and the government will have direct implications for mining operations in Colombia. As of December 4th, the peace talks have reached a partial agreement on key issues such as rural reform and rebel drug trafficking, yet several points of contention still remain. In particular, the issues of justice and ceasefire continue to cause tension at the negotiating table, and agreements pertaining to rebel demobilization and victim reparations prove to be elusive. Still, 52 % of Colombians are optimistic in regards to the peace talks, and both sides seem to be willing to negotiate in the spirit of meeting the talk’s March 23 2016 deadline.

The Colombian government has agreed to release 30 FARC prisoners, and has refused for the first time since the conflict began to extradite a FARC rebel to the United States. Meanwhile, FARC has suspended its weapons purchasing, and has instilled a unilateral ceasefire dropping violence in Colombia to levels not seen since 1975. However, the Colombian government’s reluctance to enact a bilateral ceasefire has continued to fuel tensions between both sides as they aim to reach a final agreement.

Further, the apparent softening of the Colombian government’s stance has precipitated domestic backlash. Led by ex-president Uribe, some Colombians are calling for harsher punishments for FARC rebels. Distrust continues to impede effective negotiations as the Colombian government continues to feel pressured to engage in military operations against FARC. Additionally, the idea of a plebiscite for the ratification of any future agreement is being discussed in parliament, which is problematic both because FARC has rejected the idea, and because public opinion is fragmented. War weariness is evident, but anti-peace ideology or private interest and the desire for revenge over reconstruction may filibuster an agreement. 

The pertinent question remains: what effect will the success or failure of the peace talks have on Colombia’s mining industry?

For now, it appears as though mining will benefit from an agreement. Regarding safety concerns that mining corporations may have, violence has fallen significantly within Colombia and an agreement would open up the country for more in depth exploration. The continued removal of landmines and increasing crackdowns on illegal mining operations (FARC’s number one source of income) signify marked improvements for the mining sector.

However, an agreement may also have negative repercussions in the future. The Colombian government has pledged to restore biodiversity in rural areas, which may impact their willingness to issue mining licenses. And if FARC gains political legitimacy, mining laws may become more stringent as the militia may seek to view mining in an inward direction. A land reform agreement may grant indigenous communities the right to determine land use to the detriment of mining companies. As a result, tension may emerge between mining companies and locals.

If the peace talks fall through altogether, the implications are vast and largely security-related. The end of a ceasefire and resumed tensions between the government and FARC will set back safety and make mining considerably more dangerous and difficult. An end to the landmine removal process would further complicate the problem, and if illegal mining is not dealt with, the mining industry will surely face a downturn.

All aspects considered, the ongoing peace talks between the Santos administration and FARC will be highly significant for mining prospects in relation to safety and access to the region.